“I wasn’t the best three weeks ago, and I’m not the worst now.”
That is how Darwin Nunez framed the disappointment he experienced as Liverpool missed the chance to go 10 points clear in the Premier League title race in Wednesday’s 2-2 draw at Aston Villa.
The Uruguay striker’s wastefulness in front of goal, a persistent concern since he joined for an initial £64m in 2022, again reared its head as he blazed over from six yards with the target gaping at Villa Park.
It is only one month, though, since Nunez produced stoppage-time heroics with a late double to clinch a 2-0 win at Brentford and strengthen the Reds’ grip in top spot.
But his miss, which had an expected goals value (xG) of 0.75 – meaning he would be expected to score 75% of the time in that scenario – was described as “one of the worst we’ve seen this year” by ex-Liverpool striker Robbie Fowler on TNT Sports.
It also left head coach Arne Slot with his head in his hands as he later lamented the loss of two points.
‘If I fall, I get up’ – but what do stats say about Nunez?
On Thursday, Nunez posted on social media: “If I fall, I get up. You’ll never see me give up. I’m going to give it my all until the last day I’m here in Liverpool. Resilience!”
But do the numbers suggest the Uruguay international can still play a pivotal role for Liverpool going forward?
Nunez, who was heavily linked with a move to the Saudi Pro League in January, is now in his third full season at Anfield since joining from Portuguese side Benfica on a six-year-deal.
In that time he has scored 39 goals in 131 appearances – an average of one every 182 minutes
But the data suggests he has 13 fewer goals than would be expected, with an overall xG of 52.4.
Nunez has missed just short of one big chance per Premier League game (0.99) since his debut in the competition, according to Sky Sports.
Liverpool signed Nunez following an excellent 2021-22 campaign in which he scored 34 times in 41 appearances for Benfica, including against the Reds in both legs of their Champions League quarter-final.
But that remains an outlier in the 25-year-old’s career to date as the only season in which the striker has overperformed his xG in league competition.
His tally of 26 league goals in 2021-22 was eight more than expected, achieved with an impressive – and since unmatched – shot conversion rate of 30.6%.
Last season, Nunez had an xG underperformance of -5.4 in the Premier League, a decline on -2.4xG in his first campaign.
While he has four league goals from an xG of 4.0 this season, his shot conversion rate of 10.3% across all competitions is vastly inferior to that of Liverpool’s other established forward players such as Mohamed Salah (22.3%), Cody Gakpo (22.2%) and Luis Diaz (21%), who have each also made at least 35 appearances in 2024-25.
In terms of his performance compared to other Premier League strikers this season, Nunez ranks outside the top 20 in a number of key areas.
His shot conversion rate of 15.4% ranks tied 22nd and he is 24th for minutes per goal (223), while 30 players have bettered his xG performance (0.0) following Wednesday’s miss.
For comparison, Chris Wood is setting the standard with a shot conversion rate of 39.1% and his 18 goals a significant overperformance of his 10.4 xG.
‘I cannot see him being there past the summer’
Darwin Nunez is a frustrating player.
When he came in, he became a fans’ favourite just because of the work-rate that he gives.
But, on the flip side, his composure in front of goal has never been good. When you are at a big club, it is what you are measured on. Is he good enough to be in a Liverpool team that is competing on all fronts? Probably not.
It showed against Aston Villa – that was a huge miss. At a team like Liverpool, you are expected to finish that.
Nunez does not have that composure. His mind is going one hundred miles an hour and he cannot slow down his thought process, that was what happened. That miss could be costly come the end of the season.
There is still a lot of talk around the future of Mohamed Salah. But, even if he leaves, I do not think Nunez will be the backup ready to step in. If I am being honest, I cannot see him even being there past the summer.
How do Liverpool fans feel?
Ruhel: Nunez’s missed chances probably cost Jurgen Klopp’s team a league title last season. His abysmal finishing will probably cost Slot’s team a league title this season.
Ray: Nunez is a big disappointment. His stats showed he wasn’t good enough for Liverpool but Liverpool still bought him. Speed of thought is crucial when playing at this level and he hasn’t got it. He tries hard but this is not enough. He will be gone at the end of the season.
Ryan: Really, really tired of Nunez now. Not just based on Villa. Yes, he ‘works hard’, but he’s playing for Liverpool in the Premier League. That shouldn’t be a brag, it’s mandatory. He’s a very poor finisher and has been the star of his own catalogue of missed opportunities. He needs offloading and replacing this summer.
Liam: I just cannot understand the persistence and logic behind playing Darwin Nunez. That miss tonight is one of the worst I have seen all season and I have seen nothing so far that indicates he has the ability to play for a club top in the Premier League.
Pete: Trying to make sense of the Nunez agenda on here. Diogo Jota missed an absolute sitter and Marcus Rashford was ineffective yet again but the narrative is Nunez.
The Anfield Wrap Sports journalist Mo Stewart: I think he knows the narrative around him, and I think that’s part of it, it almost feels like he’s playing for his Liverpool career. He knows that he needs to have at least one or two big moments, big contributions if he wants to stay here.
