Red Bull might have won the world drivers’ title for the fourth year in a row with Max Verstappen last year, but they head into the new season under conspicuous pressure.
They have lost their design guru, following Adrian Newey’s move to Aston Martin, rivals are circling around Verstappen, and over the second half of last year, Red Bull had only the third fastest car in Formula 1.
So what is at stake for Red Bull as they head into the final year of F1’s current regulations?
What happened to Red Bull last year?
Verstappen’s fourth title was founded on the points advantage he built in a brief period of dominance at the start of the year, and an outstanding performance from the Dutchman for the remainder of the season.
From the sixth race of the season in Miami, the car no longer retained the massive advantage over the rest of the field it had enjoyed in the first five races, or the two preceding years.
Yes, it ended the year as on average the fastest car in qualifying – by 0.052 seconds over the McLaren. But take the numbers from Miami onwards and the McLaren was faster by 0.053secs. Over the second half the season, the McLaren was faster by 0.142secs and Red Bull were also slower than Ferrari – by 0.008secs.
Had McLaren started the season in a stronger position, therefore, Verstappen’s championship would have been a lot harder to win.
Red Bull’s issue was that a fundamental balance disconnect became more apparent as they tried to add performance to their car. They struggled to solve their mid-corner, slow-speed understeer without creating oversteer in the fast corners.
Newey said: “Already through the very last stages of ’23, the car was starting to become more difficult to drive,” Newey said. “Max could handle it. Checo (Sergio Perez) couldn’t.
“That carried into the first part of ’24, but the car was still quick enough to be able to cope with it.
“It’s something I was starting to become concerned about, but not many other people in the organisation seemed to be very concerned about it.
“And from what I can see from the outside, but I don’t know… the guys at Red Bull, this is no criticism, but I think they just – perhaps through lack of experience – kept going in that same (development) direction. And the problem became more and more acute, to the point that even Max found it difficult to drive.”
Red Bull believe they lost ground because they did not exploit aero-elasticity of front wings as much as McLaren, Mercedes and later Ferrari.
This method of construction enables teams to build the carbon-fibre in their front-wing in such a way as to have the elements flex downwards at high speed, reducing downforce and therefore oversteer, but have them move back into optimum downforce mode at slower speeds.
New rules for this season limit the flexibility of wings – at the rear from the first race, and at the front from the Spanish Grand Prix in June.
The question is whether this was the sole issue Red Bull faced, and whether they can catch up the ground McLaren and Ferrari made last year, and whatever development progress their rivals have made over the winter.
How will they cope without Newey?
Newey’s departure came in the wake of allegations of sexual harassment and coercive, controlling behaviour made against team principal Christian Horner by a female employee.
Horner has always denied the allegations and was cleared by two separate Red Bull internal investigations. But they unsettled Newey, and added to the disquiet Red Bull’s design chief was already feeling about internal politics within the engineering team.
There was a disagreement as to who was primarily responsible for Red Bull’s recent success. Newey felt technical director Pierre Wache was unfairly pushing for credit – and Horner backed him publicly. Whereas Newey saw the 2022 car and fundamental concept Red Bull followed for F1’s current regulations as very much his.
The 2025 car will inevitably be an evolution of the 2024 design, given that this is the final year of a set of technical regulations and there is massive change coming for next year. Nevertheless, Newey’s departure gives Wache and the rest of the design team a chance to prove themselves out of Newey’s shadow.
It is a chance for Red Bull to prove a point, but it could go either way.
Red Bull motorsport adviser Helmut Marko has already been quoted saying that he believed the team were slower to get on top of their problems in 2024 than they would have been had Newey still been involved.
If they cannot return to having the best car, then there will be a major spotlight on Red Bull and serious questions being asked.
Could Verstappen leave?
The pressure on Red Bull is all the greater because of the potential ramifications of this year on Verstappen’s future.
The Dutchman, 27, is under contract to Red Bull until the end of 2028, but his deal has performance clauses in it – the details of which are not known publicly. That means that if Red Bull don’t produce a competitive, winning car, Verstappen could leave.
Verstappen’s father Jos made it abundantly clear in 2024 that he was not happy about Horner remaining in charge, saying back at the first race of the season that the team risked breaking apart if Horner stayed on as boss.
As Newey’s departure was followed by that of sporting director Jonathan Wheatley to Sauber/Audi, and head of strategy Will Courtenay’s decision to leave for McLaren – although Courtenay is currently being held to his contract – it could be argued that Jos Verstappen has a point.
Relations between Horner and Verstappen Sr remain tense, even if an uneasy truce has developed in recent months.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has made no secret of the fact that he wants Verstappen in one of his cars as soon as he can get him.
Verstappen could also have future options at Aston Martin, where Fernando Alonso’s contract expires at the end of 2026, and Ferrari, where both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are said to reach potential break points in their deals at the same time.
The forthcoming 2026 regulations complicate things – the Verstappens may wish to wait and see how things pan out next year, given that both the chassis and engine rules are changing then.
But if Red Bull are not competitive this year, the temptation to jump early may be significant.
What’s going on with the Horner situation?
Horner remains in situ, with the backing of Red Bull’s main shareholder Chalerm Yoovidhya. The Austrian side of the team is said to be less supportive.
The allegations brought an internal power struggle at Red Bull out into the open, between the Thai and Austrian shareholders, and between Horner and Marko.
Much as with Horner and Jos Verstappen, there is currently a truce. Will it hold?
And it remains to be seen whether the complainant will take matters further legally.
What about Verstappen’s team-mate?
After two seasons of Sergio Perez struggling alongside Verstappen, Red Bull finally lost patience with the Mexican at the end of last year and paid him off.
That decision was very expensive – it was made despite Horner deciding in the early summer last year to grant Perez a two-year contract extension to the end of 2026, when they could have signed Carlos Sainz instead.
In Perez’s place, Red Bull have promoted New Zealander Liam Lawson.
Horner acknowledges that being Verstappen’s team-mate is probably the toughest job in F1, and Red Bull are asking Lawson to come in and do better than Perez after a career that has so far spanned only 11 grands prix for Red Bull’s second team over two seasons.
Can Lawson improve on Perez’s performance?
Lawson put in some creditable and combative performances on his return last year, following Red Bull’s decision to drop Daniel Ricciardo from their Racing Bulls team. But on average he was slightly slower than team-mate Yuki Tsunoda in qualifying.
There is no doubt that Perez’s failings last year cost the team dearly in the constructors’ championship.
He finished last out of all the drivers from the top four teams, and failed to score a podium finish after the fifth race of the season in China. That was a major factor in Red Bull slumping to third in the teams’ title chase behind McLaren and Ferrari.
But Perez’s average qualifying deficit to Verstappen was just over 0.4secs, which is better than Alex Albon managed in 2020 and Pierre Gasly in 2019 before each was dropped. And Albon and Gasly have gone on to produce impressive performances for their new teams, Williams and Alpine.
Lawson will be under pressure to prove he is a step up from Perez, or the decision-making process of Red Bull management will come back under scrutiny.
